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  • Writer's pictureAvoid the Vig

Picks - NFL Week 3

Because of an epic collapse of the Houston Texans by the hands of former 6th round pick, Gardner Minshew II, we experienced our first losing week. It is great to go on unbelievable run like we have had, but ultimately, the goal is 55%. After going 2-3 this past week, our overall pick percentage drops to 68%. It is time to get back to our winnings ways.

On to Week 3...

GAME: NYG +7 @ TB (O/U 48)

Daniel Jones is now at the helm for Big Blue. There is often a debate with how much a quarterback is worth to the line. With the Giants, Eli Manning was a below replacement level quarterback. Perhaps, Daniel Jones is on the same level as Eli Manning, but his impact to the team will be greater. You will not hear anything negative about Eli Manning in the Giants locker room. The respect he has from the players and organization is second to none, but everyone knew it was time to move on. There will be a level of fervor and excitement that will be palpable in the locker room and translated onto the field. Take a look at Jacksonville last year when Blake Bortles was finally benched. I'm not sure anyone could make a real argument that his replacements were more talented than Bortles, but the team was much better without him at the helm. The Jags had lost faith in him and played much better with him out. I expect the same for the Giants.

Jameis Winston is a turnover prone gunslinger. Even though he has a propensity for throwing interceptions and fumbling, probably due to thel lickingof his fingers pregame, he still pushes the ball down the field. The Bucs have a great receiving corps that will inevitably take advantage of the Giants neophyte secondary. They stole a win last week in Carolina, which was more of an indictment on the Panthers than anything.

With Jameis Winston going against the Giants porous secondary and Daniel Jones lighting a fire to the offense, I can see both teams moving the ball up and down the field. Expect a high scoring game.

2 Units: NYG/TB O48 (DraftKings -110) WON

2 Units: NYG +7 (DraftKings -110) WON

GAME: TEN -1.5 @ JAX (O/U 39.5)

39.5 is a very low total for an NFL game, but not every game features Gardner Minshew as a starting quarterback. Gardner is not at Washington State. Mike Leach, offensive guru, is not the coach. It is the Jacksonville Jaguars and their anemic offense hosting the Tennessee Titans. This would be enough for the line to be set at 39.5. However, the wind is not being accounted for. There is a forecast of 15 mph winds at kickoff. As our The Weather and Sports Betting article states: the under hits 60% of the time when there is at least 10 mph winds. This game will stay on the ground and under the total of 39.5.

2 Units: TEN/JAX U39.5 (FanDuel) WON

GAME: PIT +6.5 @ SF (O/U 43)

There was a short period of time when the Steelers were a 7 point dog. That number was swallowed by the sharps a long time ago and won't be coming back any time soon. San Francisco has been on the road for the first two weeks of the season and didn't return home in between trips. After starting off the season with consecutive wins, they are feeling good about themselves. Many bettors are aware of the pitfalls of traveling teams and factor it into their handicap. However, teams returning home after a road trip are also impacted in ways that are not factored into the line. Other responsibilities that are not football related can affect a players performance on Sunday. Spending time with families, celebrating wins, securing tickets for the first home game of the year, are just a few of the many distractions for the 49ers this week.

Much has been made of Big Ben's injury. Where do the Pittsburgh Steelers go from here? Most assumed that it would be the ending of an era. That they would press the reset button and admit defeat. However, the complete opposite took place. The Steelers doubled down and actually traded their first round pick for cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick. If Pitt was so concerned about Mason Rudolph, Ben Roethlisberger's heir apparent, why would they trade their first round pick? The answer is simple. They aren't concerned. Coming into the year Pittsburgh was a favorite to make the playoffs. Two weeks in and a quarterback down, they have their back up against the wall and with no intentions to give up. Mike Tomlin's ATS and straight up numbers are absurd when they have a losing record. We hitch our ride to the Steel Curtain wagon this week.

2 Units: PIT +6.5 (Points Bet -105) WON

BONUS PLAY: GB -7.5, MIN -7.5, PHI -7.5 TEASER

We are recommending this play on Sunday evening, before the Philadelphia Eagles have even played their Week 2 game. It is extremely important to check Avoid the Vig. The timeliness of our plays can make the difference between winning and losing. We jump on this teaser now, because of the opening line value. There is little doubt, that come next weekend, all three of these plays will be on the move. They all play at home against the Broncos, Raiders, Lions, respectively. With this advantage teaser, we are passing through the numbers of 3 and 7, backing NFC playoff bound teams, and grabbing a line before it gets more expensive as the week progresses.

3 Units: GB -1.5, MIN -1.5, PHI -1.5 (FanDuel +160) LOSS

WEEK RECAP: 4-1 +4.7 Units

YEAR TO DATE: 19-8-1 / +21.6 Units


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