The Weather and Sports Betting
There are an infinite amount of factors to consider when handicapping a game. The world's best sports bettors are those that are able to analyze them all and identify which factors to emphasize and which to depreciate. The weather is an element of the game that is often overlooked and misunderstood by sports bettors. Determining when to factor it into a bettor's handicap, and when not to, can make the difference between being a winning and a losing bettor.
The temperature can go a long way into determining the outcome of a game. It is not uncommon for September games in the southern states to reach over 100 degrees. These extreme temperatures favor the home team, because they traditionally are in their white home jerseys, and stand on the side of the field not directly in the sun. The away team wearing darker colored jerseys, standing on the side of the field with the sun, tend to have a second half regression because of the extreme heat.
In colder temperatures, teams tend to play a little tighter, especially at the start of the game while they are still getting used to the weather. Totals will dip slightly in this environment.
Identifying the team that is used to the temperature and exploiting those that are not, is often an actionable angle to take advantage of when handicapping games.
When bettors finally identify extreme temperatures or high chance of precipitation, they usually want to bet the under. The logic is sound, but the novice bettors do not realize that most of the time, the weather is usually already factored into the line. Unless the bettor is getting the intel early enough to grab the play before the line move or catch the steam, it is best to stay away for the play entirely.
Extreme temperatures, rain storms and snow get a lot of attention from bettors. However, those angles are overemphasized in the market place. What is not taken into account by the bookmakers are torrential downpours and full out blizzards. These environments make it extremely hazardous to play in. Players can't get their footing or hold on to the ball. The combination make unders almost always locks. Bookmakers can't seem to lower the line enough to account for these conditions.
The wind is another factor the bookmakers seem to ignore. Since 2003, when the wind is above 10 mph, unders cash 60% of the time. The more wind, the more difficult it is for the kicking game and to move the ball through the air. Defenses can key on the run and play one dimensional football. As the wind speeds increase, the total should drop in correlation. If it does not, bet the under.