As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.
GREEN BAY PACKERS: REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
Green Bay finally relented and traded Aaron Rodgers to the Jets this offseason. On the surface, this may seem detrimental to Green Bay - but on closer examination, Rodgers was pedestrian last year. He finished 21st in EPA and fell flat against better competition. He became a distraction to the team, and from an organizational perspective, finding out what Jordan Love is capable of is a prudent thing to do. The 4th-year quarterback will get an opportunity to start behind an offensive line that features all five returning starters after finishing 2022 top-10 in both pass rush win rate and run block win rate while allowing the league’s 2nd-lowest pressure rate. The Packers also retained Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, who they will again lean heavily on in 2023.
GREEN BAY PACKERS: CAUSE FOR CONCERN
If Aaron Rodgers could not find success with this receiving corps, how can Jordan Love? Green Bay did finally draft a 2nd-round WR in Jayden Reed and TE Luke Musgrave to help, but they certainly don’t have a number one receiver or security blanket for Love to throw to. If Watson and Doubs don’t show major improvement, the Packers’ predictable run-first offense may be easy to stop. Defensively, Green Bay has been a sieve against the run. Bringing back Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry surprised many. He will need to make some changes to avoid finishing 2nd worst in run defense in consecutive years. Too much of Green Bay’s success rests in an inexperienced quarterback who has thrown a grand total of 83 NFL passes in his career.
GREEN BAY PACKERS: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES
I have the Packers at 7.76 wins, which is right in line with the market, but there is reason to believe Green Bay could make a run this year. Their rookie receivers showed promise as the season progressed, and the Rodgers trade could prove to be addition by subtraction. Jordan Love is a complete mystery, but with time to prepare and an offense that is built around his skillset, there is a world where he finds success and is an average NFL starter. If that happens, with their run game and pass defense, they could make a run at the winnable NFC North. The Lions are being priced as the overwhelming favorites, but there is much more parity in this division than meets the eye.
Best Bet: GB to Win NFC North (+475)
(Play to +400)