As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.
TENNESSEE TITANS: REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
The Titans were perhaps the most unlucky team in the NFL. They finished in the bottom-6 in adj. games lost, 0pp FG%, blended 4Q win% over expected, and fumble recovery %. Even a marginal regression to the mean should be substantial. When Tannehill was healthy, the Titans went 6-6 despite a brutal offensive line. Tennessee has spent the offseason upgrading the LT, LG, and RG positions. They have fired their Offensive Coordinator and brought in new OC Tim Kelly who promises to play faster and with more pace. According to 4Q win probability, they should have won 9.4 games. With drafting future starting QB Will Levis, there isn’t much reason for this Titans team to tank, especially after signing DeAndre Hopkins. If the O improves, the D seemed up to the task finishing #1 against the run, even if they were 28th against the pass.
TENNESSEE TITANS: CAUSE FOR CONCERN
Even with the addition of the aging, albeit still very talented WR in DeAndre Hopkins, there remain concerns on offense. The Titans finished dead last in the 4th Quarter EPA last year. Derrick Henry, who has now accumulated an absurd 300 rushing attempts in 3 of the last 4 years, posted a success rate that ranked 32nd in the NFL. After AJ Brown was traded last offseason, the Titans failed to move the ball with any efficiency last season. Tim Kelly, Hopkins, and the new line should create improvement if for no other reason than the Titans offense was that bad last year. With limited offensive line continuity, a quickly aging running back, and a poor receiver group, the ceiling on this Titans offense is limited. With a rookie GM at the helm, there is always the possibility they look toward the future, especially if they get off to a slow start.
TENNESSEE TITANS: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES
The Titans are heading into this year assuming they will find success. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins is further indication they are not interested in tanking. Bad luck plagued them last year and many of the holes they had on the offensive line should be filled, particularly if they can find continuity. Their 4Q win% over expected suggests they should have won more games than they did, and they are currently playing in a division with the Jags as a paper-tiger favorite. If the Titans can survive the difficult start to the year, they can make a run at the division. At the time of writing, Tennessee is still +425 at DraftKings to win the division, which would have been a best bet if it were more widely available. Over 7.5 wins at plus money is also worth a look.
Best Bet: Week 15 TEN -3 vs HOU (Pass -3.5)