GAME: SEA -6.5 @ ATL (O/U 53)
Atlanta just traded Mohammed Sanu to the Patriots for a 2nd round pick. On the surface, this is a great trade for the Atlanta Falcons and will certainly aid their rebuilding efforts moving forward. However, it is also a white flag of surrender. The season is over. The Falcons have been abysmal and despite some very famous playmakers at skill positions, they have punted on the season. I expect a major let down after this trade. From all accounts Sanu was a great locker room presence and, although he may not be a household name, was a solid player in the middle of the field.
This handicap alone makes me lean to the Seahawks. However, there is even more incentive to make the bet. Matt Ryan is very questionable with an ankle injury. The team has stated that they will make a decision if he will play on Saturday. If he does not play, Matt Schaub will take the reigns. If you have bet with us since preseason, you know how actionable games are when Schaub plays. Even if Matt Ryan does play, how effective will he actually be?
Make no mistake, I am not a believer in the Seahawks. I think they are a paper giant. But, after last week's demoralizing loss, I think Pete Carroll will have Seattle ready to go on Sunday.
2 Units: SEA -6.5 (DraftKings -114)
GAME: AZ +10.5 @ NO (O/U 48)
We have been dead wrong about New Orleans just about every week this year. There was an expectation that Teddy Bridgewater would let the Saints down. Early on, the defense picked him up. The last few games, Teddy Bridgewater looks like a solid NFL starter. The sky is the limit for New Orleans. They seem to be getting better and better every week.
The Cardinals are on a 3 game winning streak and exceeding expectations. With a rookie head coach and quarterback, the Arizona fan base is understandably excited. However, they only beat the Falcons, Bengals, and Giants. It is true, you can only beat who is on your schedule, but those three teams are absolutely dumpster fires.
Arizona isn't just stepping up in class this Sunday. They are playing the class of the NFL. Laying -10.5 is a tall task and with Arizona's propensity to get backdoor covers, we aren't recommending the play. However, we see value in a derivative market.
2 Units: NO -6.5 1st Half (DraftKings -110)
GAME: PHI +2 @ BUF (O/U 42)
Buffalo has gone 5-1 to the under. There will be 25-30 mph winds in Buffalo with a 50% chance of rain throughout the game. Wentz hasn't looked sharp for Philly and there is rumors of some locker room divide. Going against the Bills stout defense in a wind storm doesn't seem like the day to get right.
2 Units: PHI/BUF U42
GAME: LAC +4 @ CHI
The Bears were thought to be an NFL powerhouse coming into the season after a terrific performance last year. However, last year, the Bears won on smoke and mirrors. With an inflated perception and an extremely limited quarterback, the Bears are a shell of their former selves. The Chargers have been equally disappointing, but a lot of their faults are due to injuries on the offensive side of the ball. They are slowly getting healthier while the Bears dysfunction becomes more apparent.
2 Units: LAC +4 (DraftKings -114)
GAME: MIA +14 @ PIT
The Miami Dolphins named Ryan Fitzpatrick the starting quarterback for Sunday's game. In his journeyman career, he is 0-4 against the Steelers. However, this Steelers team is not the traditional powerhouse. Mason Rudolph is coming off a concussion and looking to take his position under center against the Dolphins. Despite their disappointing 2-4 record, the Steelers are actually 4-2 against the spread. The fear of Rudolph's failure has long past as they are slated as a two touchdown favorite in the game on Monday Night. But, this Steelers team is not nearly as good as their ATS record stats. They are 2nd in the league in turnover differential (+7) and a -8 in point differential. Certainly, Fitzpatrick has a propensity to turn the ball over, but he also has a a track record of keeping bad teams in games with his Fitzmagic. 14 points is simply too much for the Steelers to be laying. Even if they are up 20 points in the 4th, can anyone be comfortable with Fitzpatrick slinging the rock?
2 Units: MIA +14 (FanDuel -110)