Picks - NFL Week 7
* Check back later in the week for more Avoid the Vig Picks.*
GAME: LAR -3 @ ATL (O/U 54.5)
This line suggest the Rams are only 3 points better than the 1-5 Falcons. Oh how the mighty have fallen. The Super Bowl hangover has hit this team hard. Sitting at .500, the Los Angeles Rams offense hasn't been able to get it in gear and their defense actually has more points against than the offense has produced. This team is a paper warrior, but when they bring it to the field, they have fallen short of expectations. The Rams have by -3.2 points ATS Margin.
Atlanta, by most metrics, is clearly the worst team. Adding to the perception that they are not a very good team, they have a -8 against the spread margin. n Atlanta is simply not good. Joe Public has been pounding the Rams, yet the line hasn't moved off of 3. The Rams are receiving 83% of the tickets and only 57% of the cash. In what could be Dan Quinn's last stand, the sharps on birds.
Note: We do like this play slightly less than when we posted it due to the Jalen Ramsey play. With that being said, we are still on the home dog.
2 Units: ATL +3 (PointsBet -105)
GAME: HOU +1 @ IND (O/U 47)
The Kansas City Chiefs were thought to be one of the two top teams in the NFL a couple of weeks ago. Since then, they have lost to both the Colts and the Texans. Those two teams now battle it out as they look to grab control of the AFC South.
The Texans are coming off an emotional victory last week. They seemed to have solidified their offensive line and Deshaun Watson has finally been able to produce. However, we think this may actually be a bad spot for the Texans because of that win. Were they as focused and attentive this week in practice in preparation for the Colts or were they resting on their laurels? A lot has been questioned of Bill O'Brien as a coach lately. His ability to focus this team could go a long way to determine which team will win.
The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a bye. Frank Reich has been effective with additional time to prepare. The Colts defense is getting healthier and are a much more formidable group than the Texans have seen the last two weeks. Deshaun Watson does not handle the pressure well and we anticipate the former Clemson Tiger coming back to Earth in Week 7.
2 Units: IND -1 (PointsBet -105)
GAME: MIN -1 @ DET (O/U 46)
Detroit put up an incredible fight in Green Bay only to come up just short. In a division where there is no room for a let down spot, they have to be a bit demoralized. The NFC North is the only division where every team has a positive point differential. Stafford looked like an MVP candidate in the first quarter in Lambeau, but regressed to his true self for the final three quarters. This week, he faces a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the NFL.
Two weeks ago, there looked like there would be a coup in Minnesota. Adam Thielen called out his quarterback. Stefon Diggs took a unapproved sabbatical. The team looked like a fiery train wreck with Kirk Cousins and all his limitations as the conductor. In the weeks that have followed, the Vikings look to back to their dominate self. Cousins has finally taken chances to his receivers and pushed the ball down field. Add that to the already stout run game, the offense is firing on all cylinders.
Weekly reminder: Since Mike Zimmer has entered the league, he covers the spread by over 60%. This year, he is 4-2 ATS with a 6.3 ATS margin. If you have to bet on one team blind, the Vikings are the play.
2 Units: MIN -1 (DraftKings -110)
GAME: BAL +3 @ SEA (O/U 48.5)
This game features two teams that we feel are overrated. Big performances in the beginning of the season by Lamar Jackson still lingers in the bettors minds, but they are only 1-5 ATS. We predicted in the beginning of the year that as more games were played, the book on Lamar Jackson would be written and good coaches would be able to exploit his weaknesses. That is exactly what we have seen. Pete Carroll is an experienced coach with significant home field advantage. We anticipate that the Seahawks will be able to game plan to slow Jackson down.
Our Power Ratings have this game Seahawks -5. With the 2 points to spare, we see enough value to lay the field goals at home.
2 Units: SEA -3 (PointsBet -105)
GAME: AZ +3 @ NYG (O/U 50.5)
Our Power Ratings suggest this game should be Giants -4. On the surface, we are already getting value off a key number, but when you start picking this game apart the reason to bet the G-Men is even more glaring. The motivation factor clearly favors New York. They are coming home to play with their "future", Barkley and Jones, for the first time. The normal mundane Giants crowd will be rocking today. The Cardinals are also traveling east to a game that is expected to be cold and rainy, typical north east weather. Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your perspective, Arizona does not experience this forecast very frequently. Situationally, the Cardinals are sitting fat and happy after winning the last two games against two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Giants, on the other hand, have lost their last two games against two of the premier teams in the league.
To recap: Our Power Ratings, motivational and situational edges all favor the Big Blue. Expect an exciting game between the top two quarterbacks in this year's draft, but the New York Giants will prevail.
2 Units: NYG -3 (William Hill -110)