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  • Writer's pictureAvoid the Vig

Picks - NFL Week 15

57% on the year - Check back for our Week 15 Picks

GAME: MIN -2.5 @ LAC (O/U45.5)

The Chargers have been unlucky and currently are very undervalued in the market. The Vikings have had a great run, but injuries are starting to impact their performance. Couple these factors with Cousins propensity to do poorly at non- 1 o'clock starts, and we have a good bet on the Chargers.

We were really hoping this got to -3, but the recent movement suggest it will not. The market is moving down and quickly. Let's jump on -2.5 now. If you miss this number, wait until game day. I anticipate the public jumping all over the Vikings.

2 Units: LAC +2.5 (DraftKings -112) LOSS

GAME: MIA +3 @ NYG (O/U46)

There was a great fervor in the first half of the Giants/Eagles game last week. Eli Manning made an illustrious return by throwing a pair of touchdowns and putting up 17 points in the first half. The 2nd half, Manning regressed to true form. Eli Manning and the Giants offense were only able to muster 20 yards in the last two quarters, which begs the question: which Manning will we see this Sunday?

Daniel Jones took over for Eli early on in the season, not due to Jones winning the job, but because it was obvious Manning lacked the requisite skills to compete at a high level at this stage of his career. The glitz and glamour of last week's first half was a mirage. Eli connected on a couple of deep balls he threw against 1 on 1 coverage. The Eagles then switched to safety help in the second half, which extinguished his effectiveness. This is probably going to be Eli's last home start at Giants stadium so I expect the crowd and his teammates to be rallying behind him. However, motivation can only go as far as your skill set takes you and the The New York Giants do not possess much skill on either side of the ball. Janoris Jenkins, by far the best cover corner for the Giants, was just released this week. Left behind are a bunch of rookie cornerbacks that have underperformed this year to put it mildly.

The Miami Dolphins, on the other hand, were the laughing stock of the NFL early in the year. Their first quarter of the season numbers were historically bad, Fitzpatrick was benched, and Rosen proved why he was shipped out of Arizona for 10 cents on the dollar. However, since Fitzpatrick regained his starting role, the team is actually functional. Their ATS margin and record has been on the rise. The Miami Dolphins are currently playing their best ball of the season now. Because those early season numbers are still being accounted for, they are not getting the respect they deserve.

There are rogue +3.5 out there. If you can get that at -110, I'd suggest that. With PointsBet offering +3 +105, we will sacrifice the hook for the positive vig.

2 Units: MIA +3 (PointsBet +105) LOSS

GAME: JAX +6.5 @ OAK (O/U 47)

Oakland isn't a good football team. They had their moments where they fooled us, won as huge dogs, and made us second guess our Power Ratings almost every week. I'm not sure anyone truly knows what the Raiders are, but I'm 100% confident I know what the Jaguars are...terrible. Gardner Minshew looked incredible early in the year, but since then his mustache is the best part of his game. Nick Foles came in to prove his contract is about to be one of the worst in sports. Now, with Gardner Minshew back at the helm, the Jaguars are a complete disaster and their last few week's performances have proven as much. With Josh Jacobs looking like he is going to play, it is impossible not to bet Raiders. Add into the handicap that this is the last home game for the Raiders in Oakland, the crowd is about to be lit, and we have a solid 2 unit play.

2 Units: OAK -6.5 (PointsBet -105) LOSS

GAME: BUF +1.5 @ PIT (O/U 37.5)

Late sharp action on the under.

2 Units: U37.5 (FanDuel -110) WON


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