top of page
  • Writer's pictureAvoid the Vig

Picks - NFL Week 10

Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Miami Dolphins to their first victory against the Jets.

*Check back later in the week for our Week 10 Picks*

GAME: MIL -1 @ LAC (O/U: 227.5)

Much has been made of the load management for Kawhi Leonard. At this time, it is unknown if Leonard will play, but even if he does, his minutes will be restricted. With Paul George already on the shelf, the Clippers will not have the star power to compete with the Bucks. This line is on the move. Grab it now.

2 Units: MIL -1 (William Hill -110) WON

GAME: LAC -1 @ OAK (O/U: 49)

The total opened at 47.5 and has been bet up to 49. The Chargers are getting healthier on the offensive side of the ball, but are 7-2 to the under. The Raiders, on the other hand, are 3-5 to the under. If you are looking for a parlay, there is a strong correlation of the Raiders to the over and the Chargers to the under.

Digging a little deeper, prime time games are 68% under and divisional games are 61% to the under. Those are two dominate, profitable trends on our side. On top of that, the cumulative O/U margin for the teams is -3.3. This means that on average, the total points have fell short of the O/U by 3.3 points per game. On our total calculator, we have the line at 45.5. We are getting over a field goal worth of value.

2 Units: LAC/OAK Under 49 (DraftKings -110)

GAME: CAR +5.5 @ GB (O/U/47.5)

Green Bay's defense has come back down to Earth after a few stellar games. Their run defense is susceptible and that is where Carolina thrives. It is going to be cold with winds around 10 mph, but the ground game will certainly keep the total in play.

2 Units: CAR +5.5 (FanDuel -120)

2 Units: CAR/GB O47.5 (FanDuel -110)

bottom of page