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  • Writer's pictureAvoid the Vig

Picks - NFL Week 4

Hitting 70% of our picks to start the season is better than we could have ever imagined. After an easy under on Thursday night, The New York Giants came through on Sunday hitting the over and the side by a heroic performance by Daniel Jones in his first start. Mason Rudolph capped off our run on inexperienced quarterbacks to push us to four wins for the week. The only loss was our Bonus Play where Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles came up short. Had they been able to complete the comeback, we may have been able to retire. Since we only went 4-1 last week, we might as well keep playing our hot hand.

On to NFL Week 5...

GAME: KC -6.5 @ DET (O/U53.5)

Opening Line: Grabbing the Chiefs before the line moves to the key number of 7. The Chiefs looked like they under performed if you solely examine the stats from the previous week. The Cheifs failed to cover the spread in a game that was never real in doubt. Their opponent this past week, the Baltimore Ravens, is clearly superior to the Detroit Lions. Laying this many points on the road is not good practice, but Andy Reid has been lights out in the beginning of seasons and Patrick Mahomes seems to have one incredible performance after another.

2 Units: KC -6.5 (FanDuel -110) LOSS

GAME: NE -7 @ BUF (O/U 43.5)

Opening Line: We grabbed another road favorite, which, as we have previously stated, we hate doing, but there is just too much value here. New England did not cover the 22.5 point spread this week against the Jets due to a muffed punt returned that was covered in the end zone for a touchdown and a pick six. Certainly, Buffalo is much better than the Jets, but their undefeated record is overvalued based upon the opponents. They have played the Jets, Giants, and Bengals thus far. Those teams are a combined 1-8 straight up. Josh Allen and the Bills D has looked extremely impressive, but New England is a huge step up in class. Getting this number at a touchdown is as good as we are going to get.

2 Units: NE -7 (FanDuel -115) LOSS

GAME: DAL -2.5 @ NO (O/U 47)

We are going to get to see if Dallas is for real as they take their undefeated record into New Orleans. Who Dat Nation is riding high after Teddy Bridgewater led the team to victory in Seattle. Seattle is known for its home field advantage, but the team, itself, leaves something to be desired. Any road victory in the NFL is impressive, but I think the excitement on New Orleans and their new signal caller has gone a little too far. On the other hand, Dallas Cowboy's new signal caller, Kellen Moore, looks legit. He has the boys firing on all cylinders as they look to keep pace with the NFC elite. We are riding Dak's hot hand and fading Bridgewater in Week 5.

2 Units: DAL -2.5 (Points Bet -110) LOSS


Daniel Jones walked into Tampa Bay and stole a victory away from the Buccaneers. A week later, those same defeated Buccaneers have to go to the west coast to play the Los Angeles Rams. The spread opened up at Rams -10 and has since been bet down to -9, which makes this within striking distance of our advantage teaser. The Rams have not shown that they are the same team they were last year, but even with the some regression, they should still be able to take care of the turnover-prone Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Vikings opened up at +3 in the Windy City. As the week has progressed, the sharps have been pounding the Purple People Eaters. The Vikings are one sided on offense, but that is a lot better than Chicago who is no sided on offense (is that even a thing?). The Chicago coaching staff is so depressed about their signal caller, Mitchell Trubisky, they no longer want to throw the ball. The downside to this game plan is the Bears haven't been effective running the ball either. Here we have two division rivals that know each other and have incredible defenses, which makes getting more than a touchdown a great spot to be in.

3 Units: LAR -2.5, MIN +8 (6.5 Point Teaser - William Hill -130) LOSS

Weekly Plays: 0-4 / -9 Units

YEAR TO DATE: 19-12-1 / +11 Units


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