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  • Writer's pictureAvoid the Vig

NFL Strength of Schedule - Season Win Totals

When most people discuss NFL strength of schedule, they default to last year's win total. With the revolving door of players and coaches, looking back isn't necessarily the most accurate way to move forward. Add in the current pandemic that is crippling offseason programs, it is apparent we need a better gauge to accurately represent a team's strength schedule.

By utilizing a team's season win total, we can accurately assess every teams' expectation for this upcoming year. If we analyze each team's schedule, not with the team name, but rather the opponent's win total, we can create a strength of schedule that is significantly more useful than utilizing last year's record. We did exactly that.

Below are tables that represent each team's strength of schedule based upon their Opponents Average Win Total (OAWT). The lower the OAWT, the easier the schedule. To keep consistency, we used the season win totals from DraftKings Sportsbook. Because not all win totals are taxed with -110 juice, we calculated extra vigorish into the win total number. For instance, Indianapolis Colts have a win total of 8.5 (-143). To accurately represent this, we took the 43 cent juice, subtracted the traditional 10 cents, and added it to the original win total. Therefore, the Colts win total is actually 8.83.

After looking at the results of our data, Phillip Rivers and his 9 children made a great decision going to Indianapolis. It is also more than likely that Atlanta Falcon's head coach, Mike Smith, will be looking for a job sooner rather than later.


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