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  • Writer's pictureAvoid the Vig

NFL Strength of Schedule - Win Totals

*** Updated: September 2, 2019***

In order to quantify value in NFL futures, you must consider not only the teams you are looking to bet, but also the teams they are playing. Having a difficulty or easy schedule can go a long way in determine a winning or losing NFL future season win total ticket. Many well-known and reputable websites list their NFL Power Rankings. This can, and probably should, be used as a factor in a handicap. However, there is an underutilized method of projecting season success: Cumulative Opponent Win Totals.

I used the September 2, 2019 odds on DraftKings NJ to calculate the strength schedules for each team. Instead of associating the team, I used their adjusted win total line based upon additional vig. I added each team's opponent's win total and then sorted by the aggregate. The results of the calculation are below.

New England, perhaps the greatest dynasty in the sport, has the easiest schedule and it is not even close. To put it in perspective, they have the same margin between them and the second team, New York Jets, as the Jets do with the seventh team. This is probably why the Patriots win total went from the opener of 10.5 to the current line of 11.5.

Certainly this information has a value in the futures market, but I plan on using it for each game, particularly early in the season. By analyzing the data, it can be determined if there is any let down or look ahead spots based upon the current and following week's opponent's season win totals.


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