Avoid the Vig
My NFL Season Betting Review
By Steve Rieder
It is readily accepted that NFL sides and totals are the most difficult market to beat. Come game day, they may be downright impossible. This is why when looking back at the 2021 NFL season, I am happy with the results and all we were able to accomplish. Certainly, there were missteps along the way, lines that went against me, bad beats, and bets I'd like to forget, but it is tough not to be proud of a 70-49 (59%) record.
There are a couple of things I need to get out of the way from the start. For starters, there are many NFL handicappers that are better than I am. Some of them had better records than mine, while others had worse. My point is it is important not to draw conclusions on small sample sizes. If I could hit 59% each and every year on NFL sides and totals, I'd be among the best in the industry. My goal is, and forever will be, 55%. You can make a good living hitting at that percentage. Anything above that watermark is cause for celebration.
You may be curious why I am telling you to pump the brakes on lauding my record. It isn't because I don't have confidence in myself or that this year was an outlier. In fact, the opposite is true. I have tracked every bet I have ever made in every sport and have had the good fortune of being profitable in nearly every sport (damn you baseball!). For the two years my picks were public, I went 71-54 (57%) in 2019 and 70-49 (59%) this past season. The reason I bring all of this is up is to caution you that a small sample size can be deceiving. I had 4 straight losing weeks from Week 8-11 and then was profitable the following four weeks. Looking at either run you would think I was Eddie Mush or Billy Walters. The same is true for Twitter betting experts and touts. Don't be deceived by what someone has done in their last 10 games or Game of the Month bets. Look at the entirety of their record over a long period of time.
So where does that leave us? I'm not sure if I'll be packaging my picks next year, giving them out for free, or simply focusing on maximizing my personal earnings. Regardless, I hope for those of you who have followed me on Twitter or at Betting Predators you were able to make some money. After all, the sole purpose for creating AvoidtheVig.com was to share my sports betting knowledge, which would hopefully lead others to profitability. Thank you for taking this journey with me.
If you have any questions or are interested in partnerships feel free to reach out to me @AvoidtheVig on Twitter. I am always available in our quest to avoid the vig and beat the book. Best of luck!