Once the Super Bowl and the ticker tape parades draw to a close, football enthusiasts and bettors alike endure the NFL Draft, training camps, and preseason, waiting patiently for the first week of the NFL season. So much is made of, analyzed, and prognosticated in anticipation for meaningful games and an opportunity for action. Sharp bettors spend the summer analyzing teams, rosters, game plan, situational edges, statistics, trends, etc. There is plenty of time to digest and properly analyze all the information. But, when the glitz and glamour of Week 1 fade, the punched tickets are exulted in the air or fall helplessly to the floor, what happens when attention turns to NFL Week 2?
The main difference between NFL Week 1 and 2 is the preparation time for the coaches, players, and bettors. After spending all summer looking at the teams and preparing for plays, the impact of Week 1 is so powerful, it taints the perception of the public for Week 2. Teams that not only lost, but lost terribly, provide actionable opportunities in Week 2. The following is a statistic of teams that lost since 2003:
Off a 16-point loss: 52.4% ATS
Off a 20-point loss: 54.3% ATS
Off a 30-point loss: 56% ATS
With the goal of wining over a 52.38% clip, all three of these scenarios provide actionable value. Betting blind is never an acceptable reason to bet, but this is a great place to start a handicap.
When analyzing which teams to bet in NFL Week 2, look to play the teams that were blown out in Week 1.
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