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  • Writer's pictureAvoid the Vig

Contrarian Sports Betting

Regardless of season, sport, or location, sportsbooks generally average between a 5-7% hold on all bets. Approximately 90% of all sports bettors lose money, a large majority of which are the square bettors. One of the easiest ways to be profitable in a market where there is not a lot of profitability, is by fading the public through contrarian betting.

The concept of contrarian betting is simple, identify the teams that the public loves and bet the other side. Quantifying "love" is a more arduous task. When there is a large split between the pick percentage and cash percentage, that usually means there is an opportunity for a contrarian bet.

Avoid the Vig's recommendation: when there is a 75% or more pick percentage and less than 65% cash percentage, look to fade the public.

Finding ticket/cash splits on the internet can be another problem in itself. Most sites cost money in order to check out the cash percentage. However, before spending money to track the information, check out Pregame. They offer ticket and cash splits absolutely free.



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