Avoid the Vig
ATS Trends and Records - NFL Week 7
With over a 1/3 of the season in the books, larger sample sizes are built and trends established. These trends are often viewed as a catalyst for the Joes to start betting. For instance, because underdogs have been profitable, they must be profitable in the future. But these trends are a cumulative snapshot of the past and not necessarily a predictive measure of the future. Sharps look for the outliers and fade them when the situations arise. The reason is simple, the oddsmakers over-react to the one-sided outcomes and the public drives the number even higher/lower as they try to take advantage of the trend. No matter what, when betting trends never bet blind.