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  • Writer's pictureAvoid the Vig

Turnover Differential - NFL week 7

Jameis Winston had 5 interceptions and a lost fumble against the Carolina Panthers. The Bucs lost by 11 points.

There are millions of people that bet on sports, but only a few are truly successful at betting the NFL. One of the wiseguy secrets is using turnover differential to help shape their handicap. There is a direct correlation between winning teams and a positive turnover differential. Below is a list of the NFL teams, their turnover differential, and point differential.

The chart below is an analysis of the team turnover differential and point differential. In order to analyze the data with more efficiency and effectiveness, we scaled the point differential score down to 10% of the point differential. The blue bar identifies the turnover differential, while the red bars identify the point differential.

When analyzing turnover differential, it is extremely important to note how impactful it is to the outcome of the games. For instance, when a team has 3 turnovers in a single game, their chance of winning straight up is 10%. That number climbs to 11% when factoring against the spread win percentage. Teams with a negative 3 turnover margin lose by an average of 13 points straight up. The more turnovers, the less likely you win straight up and against the spread.


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