As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
After making an impressive Super Bowl run last year, the Eagles are poised for a promising 2023 campaign. Philadelphia is the only team in the NFL to finish top-5 in both offensive and defensive EPA. After Jalen Hurts went 16-2, including the playoffs, he signed a monster extension. His backfield mate, RB Miles Sanders, left via free agency. In his stead, the Eagles signed Rashad Penny and D’Andre Swift in what appears to be a net-positive transaction. In the draft, they drafted 2 defensive players in DT Jalen Carter and EDGE Nolan Smith to create what can only be described as an embarrassment of riches. With a healthy Hurts back at the helm and one of the best receiving corps in the game, PHI is a favorite to come out of the NFC.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: CAUSE FOR CONCERNS
The Eagles will face a league-average schedule this season after facing arguably the easiest last year. After an easy opening stretch, it gets much harder. Philadelphia only played 2 teams in the top 10 in DVOA in 2022, but this year, it plays 7. The Eagles were also very fortunate last year, finishing 3rd in adj. games lost, 7th in net TO, and 8-1 in one-score games. The biggest concern is probably the fact that the Eagles lost both coordinators this offseason to head coaching positions. Philly has one of the league’s worst rest edges and should expect some negative injury regression in 2023. So much of the Eagles success this upcoming year will be tied to potential regression in injury luck and one-score games. Hurts’ health will go a long way toward achieving their lofty goals.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES
If the Eagles stay healthy, I don’t see them taking a major step back this upcoming year. They are perhaps the most well-rounded team from a personnel perspective and their coach has been incredible. In regards to betting, I see value across the board. I played over their win total of over 10.5 and would consider playing over 11.5 at plus money. Both games against WAS and the game against ARI show tremendous value from spread discrepancy. All 3 of those games were worth a bet for me. However, for the purpose of our best bet, I took advantage of the opportunity to fade the defending champion KC Chiefs. After all, KC wins games but isn’t great against the spread.
Best Bet: Week 11 PHI +3.5 at KC (Good to +3)