As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.
NEW YORK JETS: REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
After an absolutely miserable season from the quarterback position, the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers who at his worst will be a major upgrade for NY, and at his best, could help them make a Super Bowl run. The Jets had the 3rd-worst offensive EPA last season, a stark contrast to their defense’s 6th-best EPA. The Jets roster is arguably top 10 in the NFL, but not having a quarterback was damning. Whatever faults Aaron Rodgers has, he brings hope to a team that has a fantastic defense and a plethora of talented skill-position players at his disposal. They may have one of the hardest strengths of schedule in the league, but they are also tied for the league's best net rest advantage.
NEW YORK JETS: CAUSE FOR CONCERN
Aaron Rodgers may be an upgrade from the likes of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White, but he was underwhelming last year. He finished 21st in EPA, 12th in PFF, and 21st in EPA in games against a top-10 pass defense. His Green Bay receivers may have dropped the ball at the 7th-highest rate in the NFL, but the Packers offensive line was a strength of the team. Rodgers won’t have that in New York, as the Jets’ o-line ranks bottom third in the league. The Jets face another daunting schedule and play in an extremely competitive division. Factor in Rodgers’ anticipated time to acclimate (See: Russell Wilson) and their first 6 games against BUF, DAL, KC, and PHI, Gang Green could get off to an extremely slow start.
NEW YORK JETS: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES
The Jets increase in expectations is a little too much for me to get behind. If Rodgers can return to his MVP form, this will all look foolish, but color me skeptical. @ClevTA in his NFL Preview recommends playing the Jets total over after their first 6 games. This makes a lot of sense to me considering the Jets play 4 of the best 6 teams in my Power Ratings. If you want to play under, I’d wait until right before the opening kickoff of the season. Waiting until Week 10 to back the Jets allows Rodgers and company time to find their stride, particularly after a bye. With the expectations that the Raiders will be worse as the season progresses, we get additional incentives.
Best Bet: Week 10 NYJ -2 vs LV (Play to -2.5)