As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.
NEW YORK GIANTS: REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
The Giants had an extremely difficult schedule last year and managed to go 9-7-1. This year, their win total is 7.5 despite having another year under Brian Daboll and reinforcing the wide receiver group that was decimated by injuries by adding Parris Campbell, Jamison Crowder, drafting Jalin Hyatt, and trading for TE Darren Waller. The Giants also managed to have the lowest percentage of bad drives ending in the red zone. A large part of that comes from Daniel Jones, who just inked a new deal and looks to be the franchise quarterback the Giants have been looking for. Adding FA LB Bobby Okereke and IDL Robinson and drafting CB Deonte Banks should help solidify the defense. Giants fans have to feel confident with Daboll and Schoen leading the team in a positive direction for the first time in forever.
NEW YORK GIANTS: CAUSE FOR CONCERN
As difficult as last season’s strength of schedule was, this year might be even more difficult. The Giants face division rivals PHI and DAL twice this season. Both teams rank 1st and 3rd in my NFC Power Ratings. Their offense overperformed expectations, but they still ranked 22nd in net yards per play and 18th in net EPA, while getting extremely lucky by going 8-4 in one-score games with having the lowest EPA lost due to turnovers on offense and the 2nd best blended 4Q win % over exp. The Giants defense also ranked 28th in EPA despite playing the 26th-ranked schedule of opposing offenses. The Giants have 5 games this year where they have a rest disadvantage which will only make matters more difficult for Big Blue. Barkley has yet to sign and he accounted for 30% of their offensive yards last season.
NEW YORK GIANTS: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES
Organizationally, the Giants are a team on the rise. They overperformed expectations last year, but they found their franchise quarterback and Brian Daboll, who won Coach of the Year honors. If the Giants continue this momentum, they could be ascending when the rest of the NFC starts falling back to Earth. Unfortunately for them, that may still be a couple of years away with Dallas and Philadelphia as the 2 NFC East heavyweights. With their win total in line with my Power Ratings, I found an opportunity to fade my favorite team. With the anticipation that Shannahan will figure out their quarterback situation, the 49ers should be laying 8 points in San Fran. Best Bet: Week 3 SF -6 vs NYG (Play to -6.5)