As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
Perhaps the biggest mistake in Bill Belichick’s coaching career was handing the offensive coordinator position to long-time defensive coach Matt Patricia. To Belichick’s credit, he recognized the mistake and has since hired Bill O’Brien, who has a history of success as an offensive coordinator and head coach in the NFL, despite his failings as a General Manager. If O’Brien can help third-year QB Mac Jones find some of his rookie promise, there may be hope in New England. After all, the Patriots’ defense ranked 3rd in EPA per play and pass EPA, 11th in rush EPA, and 5th in success rate. With a top-5 defense, the Patriots could turn some heads if their offense can figure out a way to be league average.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: CAUSE FOR CONCERNS
The Patriots offense finished bottom third in all of our offense advanced rankings and even that seems generous. QB Mac Jones was uninspiring at best and downright poor week in and week out. There is certainly a debate on who deserves the lion’s share of the blame for the offensive struggles last season, but Mac Jones does not instill a lot of confidence to overcome the league's most difficult schedule. On top of that, the Patriots made only marginal moves on both sides of the ball that seem to be a wash at best. If the Patriots had a league-average coach and not Bill Belichick, this win total would be much closer to 6.5. Offenses tend to stay static from year to year, while defenses are more volatile. If that happens in Foxboro, the Pats could be surprisingly in line to pick atop next year’s QB-filled draft.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES
I find myself on the market line for the Patriots win total. They are a team that could improve on the field, but not on the scoreboard. Their schedule is brutal and I’m not a huge believer in Mac Jones, although I do think we see an improvement this year, especially with the change in offensive coordinator. One area in which the Patriots have really been effective is playing teams that have poor quarterbacks. In fact, against teams with the bottom 10 EPA offenses, the Patriots ranked 1st versus the pass, rush, and overall. The Washington Commanders may have the worst quarterback in the entire league, which is where the value truly lies. I trust Belichick to take advantage of the mismatch.
Best Bet: Week 9 NE -3.5 vs. WAS (Play to -4)