As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.
MIAMI DOLPHINS: REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
When healthy, Miami was incredible last year. In the 12 games that Tua started and finished, the Dolphins ranked #2 in EPA on offense and scored 29 or more points in half of those contests. Tyreek Hill was an amazing addition, ranking #1 among all receivers, and fellow wideout, Jaylen Waddle, also produced 1400 yards and 8 touchdowns. With Braxton Berrios in the slot and not having a departing starter on offense, Miami’s offense has a chance to be one of the best in the league. With Vic Fangio replacing DC Josh Boyer, there is reason to suspect they will limit opponents’ explosive plays and be overall more effective this upcoming season.
MIAMI DOLPHINS: CAUSE FOR CONCERN
Tua’s injury history has to be what keeps the Dolphin faithful up at night. He is electric when he’s right, but he took a beating last year in some of the most excruciating hits we have seen. Mike White was brought in to back him up should he get hurt. White, although serviceable, is a big step down from Teddy Bridgewater. The other major concern is Miami’s daunting schedule. The Dolphins are projected to face the third-most difficult schedule this year and are currently operating in one of the most difficult divisions in the league. Add in the potential for a Hill suspension, there is a world where things go wrong quickly in South Beach.
MIAMI DOLPHINS: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES
Part of me wants to bet Miami early in the year to avoid any injury concerns for Tua, but there is still a possibility of a Hill suspension and it might take Fangio some time to truly implement his new defensive scheme. This leads me to Week 9. If Hill is suspended, that suspension will likely be over. Fangio has a chance to make some changes on the fly, and we aren’t so late in the season that Tua has more opportunity for injury. Hosting KC, the Dolphins are catching 4.5 when my power ratings suggest it should be 2.5. Fangio’s style should slow down Mahomes' big play ability. KC is great at winning, but below average at covering.
Best Bet: Week 9 MIA +5.5 vs KC (Play to +4)