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  • Writer's pictureAvoid the Vig

2023 Los Angeles Rams Season Betting Preview



As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.


LOS ANGELES RAMS: REASONS FOR OPTIMISM


The biggest, and perhaps the only reason for optimism, is that after 5 straight years of ranking in the top 10 of healthiest teams, the Rams finished with the 2nd most impactful injuries and most adjusted games lost due to injuries. The Rams built their team on top-end talent, which was the catalyst for their Super Bowl win in 2021 and their demise in 2022. If the Rams can stay healthy, they have some talent on the offensive side of the ball to compete. Sean McVay is still one of the best coaches in the NFL. If they are able to make a comeback this season, it will be on the back of Stafford, Kupp, Donald, and McVay. Seeing some positive regression in the injury department would go a long way for the Rams.



LOS ANGELES RAMS: CAUSE FOR CONCERN


As much as injuries can be considered a luck factor and one can expect them to regress to the mean, there are serious concerns about the depth of this roster. Add in the fact that they didn’t sign a player for more than one year and $1.1 million, traded Jalen Rasmey to Miami, and saw Leonard Floyd and Bobby Wagner leave via free agency, and the Super Bowl roster is suddenly a shell of itself. Making matters worse, there are only 3 remaining defensive starters from last year’s roster. They also have a negative 17-day net rest edge, 2nd worst in the NFL. Add in an 0-8 record against teams with a winning record, it is only a matter of time before LAR shuts it down.



LOS ANGELES RAMS: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES


I find it amazing that a team this thin, old, and devoid of talent has a win total this high. The glory days of 2021 are over. With Stafford in the twilight of his career, there is reason to suspect that if they get off to a slow start, they could look to the future. With their first 3 games against Seattle, San Francisco, and Cincinnati, the Rams could be hard-pressed to come out of the gates hot. I only have them favored in 2 games before their week 10 bye. If they are 3-6 or worse 2-7 at that point, one would have to think they would start the tank. With that in mind, I’ll be looking to fade the Rams in the games of the year post-bye.


Best Bet: Week 14 BAL -6.5 (-120) ( Play to -7)





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