As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
Derek Carr may not have been the problem for the Raiders, but he certainly wasn’t the solution. Moving on to Jimmy Garropolo may be a questionable move considering he rarely throws the ball downfield and is recovering from offseason foot surgery, but he is familiar with Josh McDaniels’ offense and there is a level of trust between the two. After all, Derek Carr was not Josh McDaniels’ man. Although Las Vegas lost its two best tight ends in Moreau and Darren Waller, it replaced them with Austin Hooper and rookie Michael Mayer. So much that went right for LV in 2021 went wrong in 2022, but the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, which means we should see a marginal improvement in 2023.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: CAUSE FOR CONCERN
Jimmy G may be serviceable, but the interior offensive line may dull his effectiveness. Even when healthy, Garoppolo is horrendous under pressure. There is also some trepidation regarding his recovery timetable. Josh McDaniels hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire either. With the exception of an improved run game last year, there wasn’t much to get excited about. The Raiders defense in particular was dreadful, finishing bottom 3 in EPA per play, pass EPA, and success rate. They also walk into a season in which they have an infinitely harder schedule. In fact, they have the second-largest increase in difficulty in the league.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES
My power ratings have the Raiders winning 6.61 games, which is right in line with the market, but I have concerns about Garropolo’s fit on this team. With lingering health concerns and what I perceive to be solid ground that Josh McDaniel is walking on, I am looking to fade the Raiders in selective spots. In week 4, the Chargers are hosting the Raiders and laying 4.5 points. In week 15, they are only laying 1. The 3.5-point difference is too much for home field, especially when you consider it also goes through the key number of 3. In a game I made LAC -3.25, we have to fade the Raiders in their second matchup.
Best Bet: Week 15 LAC -1 at LV (Play to -2)