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  • Writer's pictureAvoid the Vig

2023 Kansas City Chiefs Season Betting Preview

As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.


Reasons for optimism? These are the Kansas City Chiefs. With Andy Reid as their coach and Patrick Mahomes as the quarterback, there is always reason for optimism. There is nothing sarcastic or tongue-in-cheek about that statement. No matter who is playing for them, or what receivers Mahomes has, they always seem to be successful. Last year was supposed to see a drop-off without Tyreek Hill, but the Chiefs managed to win the Super Bowl. This season, they lost RT Orlando Brown, WR Juju Smith-Schuster, and DE Frank Clark to free agency, but found serviceable, if not better, replacements in their stead. This is perhaps the best defensive unit the Chiefs have had in the Mahomes era. With a youthful offensive skill position unit a year more mature and an improved defensive group, the Chiefs are poised for another run.


Eric Bienemy left his Offensive Coordinator position for the same title in Washington. He didn’t call plays for the Chiefs, but it is notable. The Chiefs also lost Safety Juan Thornhill without adding additional players to fill the role, they will look to promote from within. Last year the Chiefs were supposed to have one of the most difficult schedules in the league. That didn’t end up being the case, but this year projects to be much more difficult. The Chiefs also had the benefit of remaining healthy last year, ranking fourth in adjusted games lost. Kansas City will face the third-worst net rest advantage this season. The Chiefs D projects to be improved, but defense is unpredictable from year to year. Perhaps the only thing that truly slows down this Chiefs group is an injury to Mahomes or, to a far lesser extent, Travis Kelce.


The Chiefs have been such a dominant team year in and year out that it is tough to count them out of any game or predict their demise in the futures market. If I had to choose, I’d fade the Chiefs in every weekly game but bet their season win total over. There is something about Mahomes and Reid that isn’t quantifiable. It is reminiscent of the Brady/Belichick run. I don’t see much value in attacking any traditional market at the moment, including the futures. One injury to Mahomes and the win total over is drawing dead. Without traditional betting markets, I’ll pivot to a teaser where I expect the Chiefs will have everything to play for and the Raiders’ hopes will be effectively lost.

Best Bet: Week 12 7-Point Teaser

KC -2.5 / NE +10 (-140)


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