As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
The Jaguars were 3-7 to start last season, including going 1-6 in one-score games. They finished 6-1 and 3-0 in one-score games. The fact that head coach Doug Pederson and 2nd-year QB Trevor Lawrence turned it around only instills optimism in Jacksonville. Adding to an offense that finished Top-10 in EPA per play and pass EPA, is Calvin Ridley who returns from a one-year suspension. Ridley, with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram should be a formidable group for any defense. Trevor Lawrence has a plethora of options at his disposal If this defense can be league average again this year, the Jags could make a push for the playoffs.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: CAUSE FOR CONCERN
As exciting as the offensive skill positions are for the Jags, the offensive line is concerning. Walker Little will replace Jawaaan Taylor at Right Tackle. He has very limited experience at RT and his time at LT saw him allow an alarming 7% pressure rate. The Jags found life last season, but they had a top-5 easiest schedule in the league. They find themselves extremely thin on the offensive and defensive lines. Any injury could be crippling to a team that is looking to return to the playoffs for a second consecutive season. Another cause for concern is that a big leap like the one the Jags took based on preseason expectations usually coincides with a decrease the following year
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES
If the offensive line can hold it down, the Jags should be able to put up points in bunches. They have a dynamic group of receivers and if Lawrence continues to ascend, the sky's the limit. Still, there are serious concerns on the defensive side of the ball that will be limiting to the ceiling of this team. Although I have the Jags projected at slightly higher than their win total, the trend of disappointment following a year of unexpected success is enough to keep me off of their over. I am not afraid of playing their over in Week 1, however, against a Colts team that should be markedly better on offense this season.
Best Bet: Week 1 JAX/IND O43.5 (Play to 44)