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  • Writer's pictureAvoid the Vig

2023 Denver Broncos Season Betting Preview

As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.


The Broncos were extremely unlucky last season, finishing 2nd-worst in adjusted games lost and opp. FG% as well as 3rd-worst in blended 4Q win % over expected. They also had a coach that was so bad that he couldn’t survive to see his second season. Sean Payton, one of the league’s best coaches in recent memory, is looking to stabilize a talented group that underperformed expectations by five games last season. Russell Wilson is aging and his numbers last season are alarming, but Sean Payton seems to find success no matter who his personnel is. Outside of Russell Wilson, this team is pretty loaded. In fact, they spent the most money on free agents this offseason. Teams that have done that in the last 6 seasons have increased their win total by an average of 5 games the following season. With a loaded defense, even an average offense could propel Denver to the playoffs.


After an illustrious career, Russell Wilson appears to have arrived at a proverbial cliff, if not fallen right off it. He finished 25th in EPA and 29th in PFF and was sacked at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. He wasn’t much better in a clean pocket, finishing 30th in the league. As much as Denver has spent in free agency and as much as they will gain from their coaching advantage this season, the Broncos will be hard-pressed to live up to the current expectations of a slightly above-average team unless Russell Wilson figures it out. They are favored in 3 of their first 4 games, but if they don’t come out of the gate hot, it may be time to move on from their signal caller. With only Jarrett Stidham backing him up, there isn’t a knight in shining armor to save the Broncos’ season.


So many of Denver’s offseason additions have been priced into the line that it is difficult to find value anywhere. They play in an extremely difficult division and have a top-10 most difficult schedule. There are some teams you feel strongly about one way or another. This Broncos team is such a quandary that it is difficult to get involved in too many futures. The Broncos roster is stacked enough to win but features a quarterback that looks like a shell of his former self. They significantly underperformed last season’s win total, and yet that number has moved up 3.5 games this year. With so much in flux, we pivot to Week 15 against Detroit where Denver could be out of the playoff picture while the Lions should be firmly entrenched in the middle of it.

Best Bet: Week 15 DET -2 (Play to -2.5)


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