As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.
BUFFALO BILLS: REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
In the first 9 weeks of last season, before Josh Allen injured his elbow, the Bills were 3rd in EPA. Still, they finished top-5 in nearly all statistical categories, including leading the NFL in point differential. Now they add rookie TE Dalton Kincaid to bolster an already-dominant passing attack. Before 2022, the Bills added multiple defensive pass rushers, including eventually-injured Von Miller. It stands to reason that this group will continue to improve in 2023, particularly with Sean McDermott taking over play calling from Leslie Frazier. Buffalo’s only 3 losses were by a field goal or less. The Bills turned the ball over frequently, which is due for positive regression. If Josh Allen stays healthy and limits his turnovers, Buffalo could become Super Bowl favorites in a hurry.
BUFFALO BILLS: CAUSE FOR CONCERN
It is difficult to argue the Bills won’t find success this season, but there are some concerns that need to be addressed. Allen turned the football over frequently in 2022, resembling his rookie form. The Bills finished the season with the 2nd highest EPA lost due to turnovers and lost the 2nd most fumbles. Allen was intercepted 9 times in the red zone and had the highest rate of drive-ending mistakes in the NFL. Buffalo’s defense ranked 2nd in EPA allowed on first and second downs, but 5th worst on third and fourth. As a result, Sean McDermott has assumed defensive play-calling duties. Add in that the Bills have a top-5 most difficult schedule in the NFL, and the Bills’ path to the Super Bowl is difficult. Their success hinges on a below-average offensive line keeping their QB healthy and Allen himself limiting turnovers.
BUFFALO BILLS: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES
I have Buffalo favored in all but 3 games, but because of its difficult SOS, the Bills are only projected to win 10.97 games. Even with Allen’s propensity to turn the ball over, I anticipate a significant decrease in turnovers this year. I also expect McDermott to fix some of their third and fourth down defensive difficulties. Both regressions to the mean would certainly prove beneficial and could propel BUF to the Super Bowl. In a difficult division with a tough schedule, I do not have a lot of preseason stock in the Bills and find their current value relatively in line with my power ratings. However, I do think we have some value in laying the points against a team with the worst QB situation in the league.
Best Bet: Week 3 BUF -4.5 (Play to -5.5)