Avoid the Vig
Picks - NFL Week 2
We carried the momentum from the preseason into Week 1. Going 2-1-1 now makes it 5 straight winning weeks. The Ravens and 49ers cruised to easy covers. The Rams allowed a backdoor push despite covering for most of the second half. Our only loser was the second half of our teaser. Russell Wilson was able to beat the Carolina Panthers, but not the -2.5. All in all, it was a good week. As the saying goes, "You can't go broke making a profit".
On to Week 2...
Note: We are posting these plays early to take advantage of opening lines. If you are unable to secure your limits or get down on the number, we will update the post as the week progresses.
GAME: DAL -4.5 @ WAS WIN
Looking at the box score, the Redskins lost by merely five points in the hostile environment of Lincoln Financial Field. They were so good in fact that they were up 17-0 midway through the second quarter. All of this against a team that is supposed by vying for the Super Bowl in February. Therefore, Washington has to be trending up. As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast!". The Philadelphia Eagles didn't play their starters in the preseason and it clearly showed. Once they finally got their legs underneath them, the game was a route. Save the last six seconds of the game when the Redskins scored a meaningless touchdown, the Eagles outscored the Redskins 32-3. Feel free to go back and read that last sentence again. Let it sink in. 32-3.
This coming weekend, the Skins are hosting the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas dismantled the Giants in their opener in a way that is not indicative of the final score. Dak Prescott looked like he was proving a $30 million dollar point as he posted a 405 yard day. With Ezekiel back from Cabo for another week, his legs will be ready to handle the workload more so than he did in Week 1. I expect more production out of the $90 million dollar man.
Ultimately, I think Washington is more their 2nd half performance than their first. Dallas is hungry to prove that they deserve a new contract or to be mentioned as one of the NFC's elite. Either way, at least for this week, America's team is Avoid the Vig's team.
2 Units: DAL -4.5 (FanDuel)
GAME: LAC -2.5 @ DET LOSS
The Los Angeles Chargers are hobbled at basically every position. Their starting running back is MIA. And they nearly lost a home game to a team whose franchise quarterback just retired out of nowhere. All of this and I'm still backing them in Detroit against the Lions.
In week 1, the Detroit Lions had a 24-6 lead and somehow only managed to tie the league's worst team. (I have relegated the Miami Dolphins to the defunct AAF in my mind). Their coach, Matt Patricia, may be able to do rocket science, but here certainly is no head football coach. I am not sure how you can have faith in Matthew Stafford considering he has one nothing and couldn't even beat the diminutive Kyler Murray. Phillip Rivers won't let them off the hook.
2 Units: LAC -2.5 (DraftKings)
GAME: MIN +3.5 @ GB LOSS
The Green Bay Packers didn't play Aaron Rodgers during the preseason and it showed. The future Hall of Fame quarterback was out of touch with his receivers against the Chicago Bears stout defense. Although they have 3 extra days to prepare for the Vikings, I'm not sure those practice reps will get them up to game speed. An entire summer's worth didn't for week 1 contest.
The Vikings, on the other hand, ran the ball at will against the Falcons. The 28-12 final score didn't properly exemplify the difference between the teams. With a healthy Dalvin Cook and Kirk Cousins in his second year with in Minnesota and a healthy Dalvin Cook, the Vikings are poised to establish their dominance in a NFC North that is up for grabs. Mike Zimmer is the winningest coach in the league ATS. We are getting the hook here in a line I expect to close under 3. Grabbing this one early before the line crashes.
2 Units: MIN +3.5 (FanDuel)
GAME: KC -9 @ OAK WIN
Kansas City was incredible even though Patrick Mahomes was hobbled and Tyreek Hill got knocked out and will be for the next few weeks. Kansas City is in a two way race for AFC supremecy with the New England Patriots. They are on a mission and are not going to let a team that's more focused on a former player's IG account than football get in their way.
We are placing this bet BEFORE the Raiders play on Monday night. This is a gamble, but I think the line will repost on Tuesday morning much higher. Even if the Raiders play out of their minds, the line will never get to the key number of seven, yet there is a good possibility of it going through the 10, another key number.
2 Units: KC -9 (FanDuel)
BONUS PLAY: HOU -9 / DET +2.5 TEASER LOSS
Houston is looking solid against New Orleans. They are all in with their recent transactions and are looking to make a run to the playoffs. Their Week 2 opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, lost their starting quarterback. The backup, Gardner Minshew, posted the best performance ever for someone in their NFL debut. Being a starting quarterback is a different story entirely.
Detroit is not a very good team, as we spoke about at length previously. But the Chargers are hobbled and just want to get a win and get out. Grabbing this teaser gets us through two key numbers. I do think the Chargers win, but I don't see it being more than a touchdown. Teasing this one up to 9 gives us a great middling opportunity. I don't normally recommend doing this, but under the circumstances, I think this is a good time to fire.
2 Units: HOU -2.5 / DET +9 (FanDuel)